Web 2.0 conference – not a bubble…yet

i thought john battelle did an amazing job putting together one of the best conferences i’ve attended. i heard many people say it felt very bubblelike. in fact, every party or event seemed like a lead in to this topic.

i dont believe it felt bubbly. the bubble was a time of rampant over speculation.  there is nothing wrong with speculation, being the act of making bets. i might even suggest that venture capitalists are supposed to do this. the problem is when it gets to a point of sillyness, when too much capital becomes available. i think that a market as we have now that is rewarding enough companies to keep entrepreneurs experimenting and investors often backing them is very healthy. a key for it to remain healthy is that capital doesnt get too available. if we see companies raising $50m on a business plan, throwing elaborate launch parties at limn, bidding up the price of engineers and offices then we’re in a bubble. in my mind a ‘mini bubble’ isnt a bubble at all.  almost seems as if we all feel that by saying it enough it wont come true again…and that may be right:)

2 thoughts on “Web 2.0 conference – not a bubble…yet

  1. I totally agree with you on this one Mark. I think that there’s enough discipline and memory of what came before that we won’t see bubble like conditions anytime soon.

  2. There was a slight bubble in the social networking side of things w/the Friendster valuation for example. But as it relates to the Web 2.0, I too see no bubble. The fact that Weblogs was acquired for $25M and Flickr was also acquired for about the same amount, and Upcoming.org for less than $10-15M, says to me that things are still managing to remain rational. More importantly, is that given the limited number of new business models that have emerged, its nice to see that the valuations have not followed the hype. Yes VCs are investing, but in several of the Series A & B rounds that I’ve been privy to, this is putting at least 50% of the company into investors’ hand.

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